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Prediction for CME (2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-10T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29134/-1
CME Note: Partial halo shock to the north with bulk portion to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and following a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M9.0 flare from AR13576 starting at 2024-02-10T22:56Z with clear deflection NW seen as dimming and EUV wave in SDO/AIA 193, 211, 304, and 171. There is also filament ejecta seen during and following the eruption in SDO/AIA 304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T19:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 02:49
Radial velocity (km/s): 985
Longitude (deg):0
Latitude (deg):10
Half-angular width (deg):45

Notes:

Lead Time: 45.13 hour(s)
Difference: -17.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-02-11T04:30Z

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